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Van Allen Probe A is expected to re-enter Earth almost 14 years after its launch. The US Space Force predicted that the spacecraft would enter the atmosphere on March 10, 2026, and expects that most of the spacecraft will burn up during that transit.
NASA detailed that the risk of Earthlings being harmed is low: approximately 1 in 4,200. In this situation, monitoring will continue to rule out further hazards.
- The Van Allen Probes A and B were launched on August 30, 2012, and collected unprecedented data on Earth's two permanent radiation belts, named after scientist James Van Allen. They were designed for a two-year mission, but their functionality was extended to seven. NASA ended the mission after both spacecraft ran out of fuel.
From 2012 to 2019, the spacecraft and its twin, Van Allen Probe B, flew through the Van Allen belts, rings of charged particles trapped by Earth's magnetic field, to understand how the particles were gained and lost.
What is the function of the Van Allen Probes?
Space probes were the first spacecraft designed to operate and collect scientific data within the belts, a region around the Earth in which most astronauts minimize their time to avoid harmful radiation.
With this space mission, NASA made several important discoveries about how the radiation belts work during its lifetime, including the first data showing the existence of a third transient radiation belt, which can form during periods of intense solar activity.
Analyses indicated that the spacecraft would re-enter Earth's atmosphere in 2034. However, these calculations were made before the current solar cycle, which has turned out to be much more active than expected.
The Sun and its impact on the Van Allen Probes
In 2024, scientists confirmed that the star had reached its maximum solar degree, triggering intense space weather events. These conditions increased atmospheric drag on the spacecraft beyond initial estimates, causing an earlier-than-expected re-entry.
- Van Allen Probe B, the twin of the spacecraft that will re-enter, is not expected to re-enter the atmosphere before 2030.
By observing these dynamic regions, the Van Allen Probes helped improve forecasts of space weather events and their potential consequences.