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Expectations around Arch Manning remain high heading into the 2026 college football season, even as the Texas Longhorns football quarterback works his way back from a minor offseason procedure.
Texas is preparing to begin spring practices, offering the first look at what the 2026 roster could become. However, Manning will not be on the field during those early workouts as he recovers from minor foot surgery. The junior quarterback is expected to be fully ready by the time Texas opens the season on Sept. 5 against Texas State Bobcats football.
Despite his absence this spring, the buzz around Manning has not faded. If anything, expectations have only grown following a productive campaign in which he threw for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns. The performance strengthened his reputation as one of the most promising quarterbacks in the country and placed him firmly in the conversation for college football's most prestigious individual honor.
Where does Arch currently rank?
Sportsbooks currently list Manning among the top contenders for the Heisman Trophy. Most betting markets have him no lower than third on the odds board, reflecting both his production and the belief that he could take another step forward in 2026.
Two quarterbacks appear to be his primary competition entering the season. CJ Carr of Notre Dame Fighting Irish football and Trinidad Chambliss of Ole Miss Rebels football are also drawing strong early attention from oddsmakers.
The Heisman race will unfold in the shadow of last season's winner, Fernando Mendoza. The Indiana Hoosiers football quarterback captured the award last year and is widely projected to become the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Longhorns are expected to be contenders
For Manning, the path to the Heisman will depend largely on whether he can elevate both his numbers and Texas' national profile. The Longhorns are expected to contend near the top of the rankings, and betting markets currently list them around +700 to win the College Football Playoff National Championship.
That combination of team success and individual performance often defines Heisman campaigns. Quarterbacks from title contenders frequently dominate the award conversation, and Manning's role in Texas' offense places him squarely in that position if the Longhorns deliver on expectations.
However, the immediate focus remains on recovery. Manning's absence from spring practice means Texas coaches will have to wait a few months before seeing their starting quarterback back in full action. But if his return in September matches the optimism surrounding him, the Heisman race could quickly begin to revolve around Austin.